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The Tariff Recoil: True Rally or Reflex?

The Tariff Recoil: True Rally or Reflex?

Market Review 2Q2025 Podcast | Episode 287

July 22, 2025

“The way that I would describe this rally is a bit of a FOMO rally where many managers feel they have to be invested in this market because it’s so strong, but also a relief rally where things are probably not going to be as catastrophic as had been feared, and we can continue to pursue and dive into this market and chase it.”

Each quarter, Julie Biel, CFA, Chief Market Strategist offers her perspective on the underlying forces driving the market.  Listen to her most recent episode where Julie recaps market activity during 2Q 2025, focusing on these areas:

  • The sharp market rebound driven by investor optimism around generative AI and a more measured tone on tariffs from the administration
  • Outperformance in momentum and high-beta stocks, while quality names lagged—highlighting a narrow, narrative-driven rally
  • The scale back of capital expenditures by many companies reflects growing uncertainty around tariffs

For more insights, read our 2Q 2025 Commentary or subscribe to Kaynecast where we provide the latest updates from the KAR Investment Team on our investment strategies.

Kaynecast is available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization weighted index which includes 500 of the largest companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The index is calculated on a total return basis. Growth stocks are represented by the Russell 1000® Growth Index which is a market capitalization-weighted index of growth-oriented stocks of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell Universe, which comprises the 3,000 largest U.S. companies. Value stocks are represented by the Russell 1000® Value Index which is a market capitalization-weighted index of value-oriented stocks of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell Universe, which comprises the 3,000 largest U.S. companies. Small-capitalization stocks are represented by the Russell 2000® Index which is a market capitalization-weighted index of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell Universe, which comprises the 3,000 largest U.S. companies. The indexes are not actively managed and do not reflect the deduction of any investment management or other fees and expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

 

This information is being provided by Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management, LLC (“KAR”) for illustrative purposes only. Information in this article is not intended by KAR to be interpreted as investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to purchase securities, or a recommendation of a particular course of action and has not been updated since the date listed on the correspondence, and KAR does not undertake to update the information presented. This information is based on KAR’s opinions at the time of publication of this material and are subject to change based on market activity. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. KAR makes no warranty as to the accuracy or reliability of the information contained herein. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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